Will Pete Buttigieg Triumph in the New Hampshire Primary?

The New Hampshire primary is a crucial step in the 2020 Democratic race, with high stakes and significant implications for the nomination fight. Recent polls have shown a noticeable shift in favor of Bernie Sanders, raising questions about Pete Buttigieg's prospects. This article delves into the dynamics of the New Hampshire Democratic primary, examining recent trends, delegate allocations, and the broader context of the race.

The Polling Landscape

Since the Iowa caucus, Pete Buttigieg has seen a spike in media attention, which has translated into increased support in the polls. However, as of February 10, 2020, he is approximately 7 percentage points behind Bernie Sanders in New Hampshire, a comfortable margin for Sanders. Most recent polls predict that Bernie will secure more delegates than Buttigieg, though it's important to note that Buttigieg did better than Bernie in Iowa. This suggests that Iowa was a more competitive race, with Buttigieg earning more delegates despite not winning the overall caucus.

Delegate Allocation Rules

In New Hampshire, as in many other states, the primary is not a winner-take-all scenario. Instead, there are delegate allocations based on the number of votes each candidate receives. This means that there is no clear winner or loser; candidates merely accumulate delegates. According to current polls, Bernie Sanders is likely to receive the majority of the delegates, with Warren, Biden, and possibly Amy coming in with a smaller number. It's impossible to predict with certainty who will win or lose, as the winner is determined by the delegate count.

The Delegate Calculation

The race for delegates is a critical aspect of securing the Democratic nomination. As of now, Buttigieg has a slight lead in delegates, but Sanders is poised to increase that lead after the New Hampshire primary. Nevada's primary is still too early to call, making it a wildcard in the race. In South Carolina, it's safe to predict that Joe Biden will secure a significant number of delegates, possibly placing him in second or third position. Amy Warren's prospects remain uncertain, and Elizabeth Warren is facing significant challenges.

The New Hampshire primary is likely to solidify Bernie Sanders' delegate count, making it difficult for Buttigieg to catch up. However, this does not mean that Buttigieg is out of the race. The Democratic primary system allows for candidates to accumulate delegates in subsequent primaries and caucuses, potentially leading to a narrowing of the delegate gap.

Conclusion

While the latest polls suggest that Bernie Sanders is favored to win the New Hampshire primary and accumulate more delegates, this does not necessarily guarantee his ultimate victory. The open nature of the delegate system means that candidates can continue to compete and potentially close the delegate gap in later primaries. For registered Democrats, it's crucial to stay informed and engaged in the race to ensure a nominee that aligns with their values and ideals.

Despite the challenges, Buttigieg remains a significant threat to Sanders, and maintaining vigilance is essential. The Democratic primary is a marathon, and victories in certain states can have a profound impact on the nomination process. Ultimately, the race is not over, and any candidate who can effectively persuade or influence delegates stands a chance of emerging as the nominee.