Will Benjamin Netanyahu Return to Power?
The upcoming Israeli election is likely to consolidate the right-wing dominance in Israeli politics, with many citizens disillusioned with the previous coalition's fragility, particularly due to its pronounced left-wing inclinations.
The Right-Wing Block
Israel's electorate is predominantly right-leaning, which forms the foundation for a coalition led by Netanyahu. Many citizens perceive the false charges against Netanyahu, who currently faces three pending court cases, as an ‘attempt at bolshevism’ that has substantively eroded his legitimacy. As a busy politician, the extended legal harassment and public scrutiny are viewed as excessive and intrusive, tainting his reputation further.
Pro-Netanyahu Citizens
Netanyahu commands significant support among his base. This support stems from his image as a strong, fair, and intelligent statesman who has the nation's interests at heart. His robust political backing, coupled with a powerful professional following, makes him an influential figure in rallying support for his coalition.
Coalition Formation and Likud's Future
By late December 2022 or early January 2023, it is highly probable that Netanyahu will form a coalition consisting of 63 seats, with his party Likud being the largest. However, if the election mirrors the previous one, which saw minimal change despite several coalition attempts, the answer is no; Netanyahu will not return to power.
Netanyahu has historically formed coalitions with nearly every party in the Knesset, except for the far-left and Arab parties. However, over the years, this strategy has strained his relationships with other right-wing parties. For instance, his failure to fulfill a deal to swap the prime minister role with Benny Gantz highlighted the mistrust and bitterness he has sown among his coalition partners.
Political Landscape and Stalemate
The current political landscape in Israel comprises two distinct blocs: one supporting Netanyahu and the other opposing him. The pro-Netanyahu bloc is predominantly right-wing to extreme-right-wing, while the anti-Netanyahu bloc ranges from right-wing to extreme left-wing. Netanyahu garners significant support from religious parties, further complicating attempts at forming a stable government.
The ongoing stalemate and the frequent elections within a three-year span illustrate the complex political dynamics. While the anti-Netanyahu bloc recently formed a government, its one-vote majority in the Knesset often led to defectors and impasses, making governance challenging. There is no indication of any significant changes in the size of these blocs, and Netanyahu continues to rely on the extreme right for support, which is problematic due to their racist and anti-Arab ideologies.
The Likud Party and Political Future
Netanyahu's dominance within the Likud party is absolute. The lineup for the coming election is expected to feature candidates loyal to him, ensuring continuity in his leadership and further idolatry. Despite respect for the democratic process, Netanyahu has shown a willingness to walk the boundaries and assert dominance.
His narcissistic self-idolatry has only intensified over the years, leading to continuous mass-protests on Saturday nights outside his residence. While not as extreme as trumpets or Putin, Netanyahu's approach to governance and democracy is distinct and polarizing.
Conclusion: The upcoming election is likely to consolidate the right-wing dominance, but Netanyahu's return to power remains contingent on the support of the extreme right, which carries significant opposition due to its extremist ideologies.