Who Will Win the 2024 Election: Biden or Trump?

This is a preview of the ongoing race for the 2024 presidential election, pitting former President Donald Trump against current Vice President Joe Biden. As of the time of writing, some states are still hotly contested, particularly those that were central in the 2020 election, such as Georgia, Arizona, and Pennsylvania. The early rounds of primary voting have shown a clear trend, but predicting the outcome a year and a half before the final vote is extremely challenging.

Polling and Preliminary Results

Currently, the polls are mainly focused on primaries, indicating that Trump is ahead in the Republican race and Biden is leading in the Democratic race. These polls, however, can be unreliable and swing based on short-term events. General election polls, especially those released closer to the actual day, are notorious for the margin of error and the unpredictable nature of voter behavior.

Primary vs. General Election Polls

General election polls, often vague and speculative, can wildly fluctuate and are rarely accurate. They have shown back and forth shifts with Trump leading for several weeks, only for Biden to surge for a short period. Notably, history has shown that poll results can be incorrect, as in the 2016 election where Trump beat Hillary Clinton in electoral votes despite Clinton winning the popular vote. Similarly, in the 2020 race, despite his leading in the polls, Biden ultimately won the popular vote by a significant margin.

The Uncertainty of Future Polls

As of this writing, it is approximately 11 months until the 2024 election, which is quite early to make confident predictions. Significant events, such as economic conditions, international relations, and policy changes, can influence voter sentiment dramatically. Therefore, it’s too early to declare a clear winner based on current polling data.

Nomination Battles and Future Electorates

Joe Biden has already secured a significant portion of the Democratic nomination process, with Trump leading the charge among Republicans. However, this is merely the beginning of the nomination process. The ultimate nominee for each party will not be officially designated until the conventions, which are typically held in the summer leading up to the general election.

Final Thoughts and Considerations

Given Trump's popular vote history, particularly his opposition to popular vote in past elections, it remains to be seen whether his current performance in polls will translate into a victory in the general election. Trump’s polarizing image, reinforced by his admiration for authoritarian leaders like Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong-un, must also be considered in the overall picture.

Ultimately, the 2024 election could hinge on the changing landscape of American politics, the reactions to current world events, and the ability of both candidates to rally their base. It's a race that will continue to evolve until the final day of the campaign, and the votes are counted.