Is it Important That We Secure a Trade Deal with the EU?

Securing a trade deal with the EU is a complex and multifaceted issue. The current economic landscape and the geopolitical climate will play significant roles in the outcome of any such negotiations. While the possibility of a successful deal is present, we must realistically evaluate the current state of the UK economy and its readiness for such negotiations.

Economic Landscape and Current Challenges

The UK's economic landscape is facing significant challenges, from a sliding currency to rising unemployment and a rapidly eroding industrial base. Poor government finances and a siege mentality further compound the difficulties. The recent loss of ground to the US on investor state clauses adds another layer of complexity.

UK trade with the EU is substantial, constituting a large percentage of its total trade. However, EU trade with the UK is relatively smaller, indicating that the UK is not in a position of strength. Much of the industry and trade that existed between the two has withered in the painful 12 to 18-month shock period following Brexit, further weakening the UK's negotiating position.

Historical Context and Negotiating Skills

The UK's historical track record on free trade negotiations is far from commendable. Compared to countries like New Zealand or even Australia and New Zealand in the 1970s, the UK lacks a proven ability to navigate such complex deals. This is a critical point to consider, especially given the time it typically takes for the EU to finalize trade agreements, which can extend to up to 60 months. Under this timeline, a deal with the EU would likely not be in place until 2025 or potentially even 2028, assuming optimistic timelines.

The EU's reputation for thorough and lengthy negotiations adds another layer of complexity. The statement about the UK abandoning Australia, New Zealand, and other countries in the 1970s is a potent reminder of the historical fallout from Brexit. The lack of any apology for this past “barstadry” (an intentional misspelling of “barbarity”) may further strain future negotiations.

Future Implications and Realistic Expectations

The UK must consider the realistically achievable outcomes of any potential trade deal. Key areas to focus on include building patrol boats, securing a share of fishing catches, initiating a housing boom, and paying farmers to produce. These are all feasible goals, but they are far from the grand visions of economic revival suggested by some.

The mention of British workers failing to pick strawberries, the potential retooling of Nissan workers to a new economy, and the non-arrival of necessary components from Italy and Germany highlight the practical challenges. Nissan's reluctance to wait for years while negotiations take place for new export deals with countries like Malawi and The Maldives underscores the need for realistic goals and achievable timelines.

Conclusion

The path to securing a trade deal with the EU is fraught with obstacles, and the UK must approach these negotiations with a clear understanding of its current economic state, its historical negotiating prowess, and the realistic timeframes involved. The road ahead is long and challenging, but with a clear and practical approach, the UK can navigate this complex landscape and achieve meaningful outcomes.