Understanding Russian Nationalism and the Baltic Republics: Probability of Military Action

Are we at risk of seeing Russian military action against the Baltic Republics in the near future? This is a question that has been posed by many in light of recent geopolitical tensions and the historical backdrop of Russian nationalism. To answer this, we need to delve deeper into the motives that drive Russian politics and the historical context surrounding the Baltic States.

Historical Context and Russian Nationalism

While it is likely that President Trump's stance on the matter has contributed to the discourse, let us step back and look at the real motives driving Russian politics. One of the most prominent examples of Russian strategic actions in recent history is the annexation of Crimea. This move was a response to the anticipated tensions in the post-Soviet space more than three decades ago. The map below clearly illustrates the high percentage of Russian speakers in the neighboring regions to the Russian Federation. This historical population distribution is the foundation for Russian nationalistic claims.

Furthermore, it is important to recognize that these areas were historically populated by Russian speakers. The division among Russian speakers is largely a result of Soviet-era border policies, which were formulated based on administrative needs rather than linguistic or cultural considerations. This historical context is crucial to understanding the current geopolitical situation in the region.

Alexandr Solzhenitsyn's Vision

Adding to this, Russian historian and novelist Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn envisioned a "Russian Union" that would include Eastern Ukraine, Belarus, and northern Kazakhstan in his essay “Rebuilding Russia,” written as the Soviet Union was still in existence. This union was meant to preserve the cultural and linguistic unity of the Russian-speaking population. Though this plan was not implemented during the dissolution of the USSR, it reflects a deeper desire to maintain a cohesive Russian-speaking bloc. While this decision to keep borders intact was made to prevent further conflict and bloodshed, it has simply become a time bomb for future disputes.

Current Realities and Probabilities

Given the current global climate and the statements from various political figures, the risk of Russian military action against the Baltic Republics is not zero. However, the sizeable Russian populations in these regions do not alone provide the necessary context for such an event. In Lithuania, for example, with just 4.8% of Russian speakers, the likelihood of military action is extremely low.

From a probabilistic standpoint, the probability of "none" does not mean that the event is impossible. It simply means that the chances are very low. The Russian government would need to believe that the benefits of military action would outweigh the significant international and economic consequences they would face. This includes potential sanctions, a united Western response, and vast diplomatic pressure.

Conclusion

It is important to approach geopolitical issues with a nuanced understanding of the underlying historical and cultural contexts. While the Baltic Republics face real challenges in balancing their sovereign identity with Russian-speaking populations, the probability of significant military action from Russia against these nations is low, given the current international climate and the potential consequences for Russia itself.

As responsible citizens, we should continue to support diplomacy and understanding as a means to address these challenges, ensuring a peaceful and cooperative international community.