Robert's Death and the Unlikely Civil War in Westeros

Given that Robert Baratheon died at his wedding feast, the political landscape of Westeros would have shifted significantly. Would this event still lead to a major civil war, or could it be averted with different circumstances?

Stannis Baratheon's Claim

If Stannis had become King of Westeros after Robert, his rigid personality and lack of political diplomacy could have alienated potential allies. Despite his strong claim as Robert's brother, consolidating power would have been made difficult, likely leading to a fragmented and unstable rule.

Stannis might not have the same adversarial relationship with his brothers, making him a less polarizing figure. However, his leadership style and lack of charismatic appeal could still create tension and conflicts.

Renly Baratheon’s Consortship

Renly, Robert’s younger brother, would also have claimed the throne, leading to a rivalry with Stannis. Renly’s charismatic nature might have drawn support from many lords, similar to the War of the Five Kings, but the exact circumstances would differ.

Stannis and Renly’s differing approaches to governance and leadership could fuel disputes and create a weakened central authority, making the possibility of a civil war highly likely.

The Lannisters' Persistent Ambitions

The Lannisters, influential due to Cersei’s marriage to Robert, would not have abandoned their power. They might have supported a different claimant to counter Stannis and Renly, leading to another round of conflicts and instability. Cersei would likely leverage her political acumen to maintain her family’s dominance and control.

The Reappearance of the Targaryens

Daenerys and Viserys would still be in the picture, presenting a significant threat to any newly established rule. They might seek to reclaim the throne, especially if they perceived an opportunity in the chaos following Robert’s death. The Targaryen’s resurrection could introduce new complexities and challenges to the political landscape.

The Ambitions of the North and Other Houses

The North, led by House Stark, would still have ambitions and loyalties, possibly leading to fragmentation and conflict. Even if House Stark did not outright challenge Stannis or Renly, their differing perspectives on governance might lead to subtle forms of resistance or rebellion, further destabilizing the region.

Different Considerations with a Different Stannis

In a different scenario, Stannis is described as less jaded and less hateful towards his brothers. Renly is in Storm's End, and Stannis is still seen as an heir unless he has a son with Cersei. These changes introduce a new dynamic:

Timeline 1: Babies are Black-haired

In this scenario, Robert’s death remains uncertain, leaving only suspicion towards Targaryen loyalists. Dorne remains a prime suspect. Stannis’s direct rule and eventual death would lead to a peaceful transition with Orys taking over. While Stannis and Renly might still order the deaths of Daenerys and Viserys, neither would be foolish enough to dismiss Ser Barristan.

This peace might be short-lived as Petyr Baelish could stage another palace coup, starting a new civil war without explicitly proving Robert’s death as murder.

Timeline 2: Babies are Blonde

Stannis quickly notices something is wrong with his children’s hair, leading to Cersei’s trial and imprisonment or execution. Stannis then remarries to Selyse or Lynesse Hightower, ensuring a stable succession for Renly. Renly might delay his move to overthrow Stannis, preferring to bide his time and gain strength. This timeline might avoid immediate civil war but introduces new dynamics and power struggles.