Revisiting Orel Hershiser's 1988 National League Cy Young Award: Was He the Most Deserving?

The debate over Orel Hershiser's 1988 National League Cy Young Award is far from settled among baseball analysts and enthusiasts. While Hershiser's impressive season statistics, particularly his high Wins Above Replacement (WAR) at 7.2, argue for his deserving nature, deeper statistical analysis reveals a more nuanced picture. This article delves into the metrics and voting patterns to determine if Hershiser truly deserves the acclaim for his Cy Young Award that year.

Understanding the Voting Formula

Typically, Cy Young Award votes are based on a combination of wins, losses, strikeouts, and ERA, along with the team’s winning percentage. A common formula used by analysts to predict these votes is:

0.34 0.026 x Wins - 0.029 x Losses 0.0011 x Strikeouts - 0.12 x ERA - 0.22 x TWP

This formula accounts for the relative value of statistics and the team’s winning record. The team winning percentage (TWP) is subtracted because a lower percentage for a bad team is more impressive than the same percentage for a good team.

David Cone's Dominance Over Hershiser

Using this formula, David Cone stands as a strong contender for the Cy Young Award. Cone remained consistent with his W/L record of 20-3, while Hershiser had a slightly less favorable 23-8 record. Cone not only led Hershiser by five fewer losses but also had more strikeouts (213 vs. 178) and a slightly lower ERA (2.22 vs. 2.26).

David Cone’s actual voting score of 42 (predicting 47) contrasts sharply with Orel Hershiser's surprise win with 120 votes (when predicted to get 39). This significant discrepancy raises questions about the voting process and whether Hershiser deserved the award.

Evaluating Other Notable Pitchers of 1988

While Hershiser’s WAR of 7.2 was the highest among NL pitchers in 1988, his exceptional campaign relative to the other top pitchers did not manifest in a unanimous selection. Below is a list of the top-10 NL pitchers in that year according to traditional Cy Young criteria:

Top-10 NL Pitchers in 1988

David Cone: 20-3, ERA: 2.22, K: 213, TWP: 62.5, WAR: 5.5, Predicted: 47, Actual: 42 Orel Hershiser: 23-8, ERA: 2.26, K: 178, TWP: 58.4, WAR: 7.2, Predicted: 39, Actual: 120 Danny Jackson: 23-8, ERA: 2.73, K: 161, TWP: 54.0, WAR: 5.0, Predicted: 33, Actual: 54 Juan Agosto: 10-2, ERA: 2.26, K: 33, TWP: 50.6, WAR: 2.2, Predicted: 20, Actual: 0 Tom Browning: 18-5, ERA: 3.41, K: 124, TWP: 54.0, WAR: 2.8, Predicted: 18, Actual: 0 Jeff Parrett: 12-4, ERA: 2.65, K: 62, TWP: 50.0, WAR: 1.6, Predicted: 14, Actual: 0 Greg Maddux: 18-8, ERA: 3.18, K: 140, TWP: 47.5, WAR: 5.2, Predicted: 13, Actual: 0 Randy Myers: 7-3, ERA: 1.72, K: 69, TWP: 62.5, WAR: 2.8, Predicted: 12, Actual: 0 Bob Knepper: 14-5, ERA: 3.14, K: 103, TWP: 50.6, WAR: 2.2, Predicted: 10, Actual: 0

Despite Hershiser’s impressive statistics and WAR, the actual voting results indicated a more divided electorate. The question remains: did Orel Hershiser deserve the 1988 National League Cy Young Award, or were other factors at play?

Conclusion and Further Analysis

The debate over Hershiser’s 1988 Cy Young Award hinges on the balance between statistical achievements and voter sentiment. While Hershiser's WAR suggests he was arguably the most valuable pitcher of the year, the voting system and actual results reveal a different story. Future baseball historians and analysts may continue to explore this curiosity, seeking to understand the underlying factors that influenced the 1988 Cy Young Award voting.