What Could Start the Next Pandemic in North America?
Historically, plagues did not originate from strange animals; they came from strangers who arrived in numbers. Indigenous populations, such as the Aborigines, Polynesians, and Native Americans, experienced devastating losses due to diseases that were fatal to half of European children. This is a practical reason why we are wary of strangers—they are the most likely source of your next pandemic, and this remains true today.
A recent report from a health official in Tijuana highlights that one-third of migrants in caravans are being treated for health issues. This underscores the ongoing concern about the spread of infectious diseases among travelers and the importance of cautious migration.
Existing Pandemics in North America
Despite the looming threat of pandemics, America is already wrestling with several. Mass shootings, obesity, and heart disease are often referred to as pandemics, with each affecting a significant portion of the population. These conditions not only burden the healthcare system but also pose substantial challenges to public health and societal well-being.
My experience in pandemic planning revealed that the most likely threat stems from the sudden emergence of a new and deadly influenza virus. This virus would likely jump directly into the human population from animals, most commonly birds or farm animals. Other threats, such as SARS and Ebola, further complicate the landscape. The potential for new bio-technologies like CRISPR to create deadly new strains of viruses in the hands of terrorists adds an additional layer of complexity.
Government Preparedness and Public Health Systems
While governments acknowledge the threat of pandemics, the focus is often on maintaining order and minimal functionality rather than on the preparation to save lives. About public health systems, we have not invested sufficiently in the necessary spare medical capacity that would be required in a truly nasty pandemic. For instance, in the UK, they have contingency plans for stacking bodies but lack adequate stocks of protective masks for medical staff. What would you do if you were a doctor in a pandemic and were told there was no stock of equipment for you?
It is crucial that we pressure governments to improve their preparedness. While they may be ready for a major pandemic that follows the next one, they are not necessarily prepared for the next one itself. We need to demand more from our leaders in terms of investment in public health systems and emergency response capabilities.
Conclusion
The potential for another pandemic in North America is real. From influenza and bio-engineering risks to existing health crises like mass shootings and heart disease, the challenges are multifaceted. It is imperative that we address these issues with urgency and commitment to ensure public safety and health.