Will There Be Peace Between Syria and Israel?

The question of whether there will be peace between Syria and Israel has been a subject of considerable debate and hope for decades. However, given the complex historical and geopolitical dynamics, the likelihood of a significant breakthrough appears to be low in the foreseeable future.

Historical and Current Context

It is important to note that the concept of a sovereign and independent Palestinian state as it is currently conceived does not exist in historical or legal terms. This reality has significant implications for the ongoing conflict in the region. The absence of such a state means that the only viable framework for peace is the recognition of Israel's right to exist as a sovereign entity.

Challenges to Peace

The path to peace is further complicated by the significant social and religious shifts required in the Muslim communities for them to accept the coexistence of Israel and the Jewish people. Achieving such a change is a daunting task that may take many generations. Additionally, the current political and military dynamics in the region, particularly the influence of external powers like Russia, add layers of complexity.

External Influences

Recent developments, such as the entry of Russia into the Syrian conflict, have introduced new elements into the equation. Russia's deployment of advanced weaponry to Syria has the potential to alter the balance of power in the region. This could, in turn, force Israel into situations where the use of military force is necessary. Furthermore, the presence of nuclear weapons is an alarming factor, raising the specter of a catastrophic event that could lead to a wider conflagration involving multiple nations.

Current State of Relations

The current state of relations between Syria and Israel is fraught with tension and distrust. For the Syrian people to be genuinely interested in peace, their dictatorial government must allow them to have a voice in matters that affect their lives. In Syria, the people have little to no influence over government decisions, making it difficult to realistically gauge the public's desires for peace.

Assad's Stance

As long as Bashar al-Assad continues to demand a complete Israeli withdrawal from the Golan Heights as a precondition for any negotiations, genuine peace remains out of reach. This stance highlights the structural and political hurdles that must be overcome before any meaningful progress can be made in the peace process.

Conclusion

The path to peace between Syria and Israel is fraught with challenges, from significant shifts in social and religious paradigms to military dynamics and geopolitical influences. While the desire for peace is universal, the current circumstances point towards an unlikelier prospect in the near future. The current situation may see more violence and instability rather than a resolution.