Is Syria on the Verge of Conflict with Israel?
The question of whether Syria is on the brink of conflict with Israel has been a contentious issue for years, fueled by ongoing tensions and rhetoric from both sides. While the answer is complex, it is important to examine the current geopolitical landscape, historical context, and potential triggers for war.
Current State of Israel-Syria Relations
It is widely recognized that Israel and Syria have not had a state of formal peace between them since 1974. The last ceasefire agreement in 1974, known as the Disengagement Agreement, was an agreement to stop hostilities, not a peace treaty (Kokhe, 2022). The ongoing conflict in Syria has further complicated these relations, making it difficult to foresee any immediate resolution to the tension.
Historical Context and Recent Developments
Israel's primary concern when it comes to Syria stems from the strategic positioning of Hezbollah and Iranian forces within the country. Iran, under the support of Bashar al-Assad, has significantly bolstered its military presence in Syria, including the deployment of Hezbollah fighters and the building of missile and rocket infrastructure (CBS News, 2022).
Assad's Retaking of the South
Most recently, Bashar al-Assad, with the backing of Iran and Hezbollah, managed to retake control of the southern part of Syria. Israel did not interfere with this recapture, provided that Iranian forces were kept out of the area (Al Jazeera, 2022). This move highlights the intricate balance of power and the limited direct engagement between Israel and Syria.
Limited Exchanges of Fire
While Syria and Israel are not on the brink of a full-scale war, there have been sporadic tensions and limited exchanges of fire. These incidents often escalated into crises, such as the incident in 2020 where Israeli air forces conducted airstrikes on Syrian territory, allegedly targeting Hezbollah weapons storage sites (Reuters, 2020).
Prospects for Future Conflict
The likelihood of a full-scale war between Israel and Syria remains low for several reasons. Firstly, Syria's armed forces are not in a position to pose a significant threat to Israel. Syria has been in a state of civil war, which has severely weakened its military capabilities (BBC News, 2022).
Secondly, both Israel and Syria understand the danger of a direct military confrontation, especially considering the extensive involvement of Hezbollah and Iran. A large-scale war would not only harm both countries but also draw in other regional powers, exacerbating the conflict (The New York Times, 2022).
Regional Dynamics and Potential Scenarios
1. **Carrie Compatibility:** If Bashar al-Assad declares war on Israel due to what he perceives as Israeli interference in Syria, it is highly unlikely that he would win a direct conflict. Assad's experience in a prolonged war and his understanding of military capabilities suggests that any such conflict would not be in his favor (Al Jazeera, 2022).
2. **Regional Alliances:** If Syria decides to take the fight to Israel, Iran could provide military support, including Hezbollah fighters and sophisticated weaponry. However, even with Iranian support, a combined force of Iran, Syria, and Hezbollah could not prevent Israel from achieving its strategic objectives (Haaretz, 2022).
3. **Israeli Military Options:** In the event of a containment of medium-sized rockets capable of hitting deep into Israel, Israel could take several military actions:
Attempt to eliminate Bashar al-Assad to create a power vacuum and install a more friendly regime. However, this strategy has been criticized as it might lead to an unstable situation (The Atlantic, 2022).
Perform a land invasion into Syria, targeting key areas and Hezbollah positions. This would likely involve operations in Lebanon as well (The Jerusalem Post, 2022).
Direct military strikes against Iran to protect its strategic interests in the region, potentially leading to a broader conflict involving multiple stakeholders (The Washington Post, 2022).
These scenarios underscore the delicate balance of power and the potential for escalation in the region, making a direct conflict between Israel and Syria less likely but not impossible.
Closing Remarks
The ongoing tensions between Israel and Syria are a complex issue influenced by regional politics, historical grievances, and current geopolitical dynamics. While a full-scale war is not imminent, the potential for minor conflicts and heightened tensions remains a reality. It is crucial for the international community to continue monitoring the situation and working towards peace and stability in the region.