Implementing a Complete Lockdown in Toronto: A Feasible and Effective Strategy

While Toronto and other major Canadian cities have seen various forms of lockdowns over the past year, the question lingers: what if they had decided to mandate a strict two-week lockdown? This article delves into the logistics, challenges, and potential outcomes of such an extreme measure, highlighting the steps that could have been taken and the potential benefits.

Understanding the Federal Role and Provincial Responsibilities

First, it's important to recognize that in Canada, the federal government does not have the authority to initiate a medical lockdown. Instead, they are limited to advising provinces and territories. The federal government's role was constrained to setting general guidelines and providing financial support. This limitation led to a decentralized response to the pandemic, resulting in varying levels of strictness across different provinces.

During the early stages of the pandemic, major provinces such as Ontario, Quebec, and British Columbia failed to institute strict enough measures, including lockdowns. These provinces allowed tens of thousands of workers to continue going to their jobs and shopping, allowing person-to-person interaction to continue unabated. This situation hindered the effectiveness of any potential lockdown, as it would have required coordinated efforts and significant logistical planning to be successful.

Logistical Challenges and Potential Solutions

The logistics of a complete lockdown would have been enormously complicated. It would have required the provincial governments to coordinate with each other, businesses to buy into the temporary work stoppage, and individual households to have sufficient time to stockpile supplies for two to three weeks. Such a venture would have been a huge and daunting project, potentially costing governments significantly, but likely far less than the long-term economic and social costs of battling the pandemic.

A complete lockdown could have effectively halted the spread of COVID-19 by removing person-to-person contact, which is the primary mode of transmission. Given that the virus does not remain infectious for more than 14 days, a lockdown just over two weeks long, combined with massive testing, would have significantly reduced the spread of the virus, ultimately enabling a safer return to normal conditions.

A Feasible Lockdown Plan for Toronto

A strict lockdown in Toronto would involve complete isolation of the Greater Toronto Area (GTA). No one would be allowed to enter or leave, with only the military and police providing essential services. This would require the deployment of the Canadian Armed Forces, which currently has 103,000 personnel, including active and reserve troops. The military could be used to build modular factory complexes to produce essential items like food, clothing, hygiene products, and medicines, ensuring that residents had access to everything they needed without leaving their homes.

The utilities sector and essential home services (water, electricity, heating, garbage collection, plumbing, sewage, and internet) would also have to be managed by the military or strategically trained personnel. This would ensure that people could remain inside their homes in relatively normal conditions. Anyone caught leaving the designated area during the initial month would be dealt with severely to discourage any attempts to breach the lockdown.

Supporting Residents and Ensuring Basic Needs

To ensure the physical and mental well-being of residents, all residents would be required to register their dietary and medical needs through an internet portal. Deliveries of food, medicine, and hygiene products would be made daily, with residents instructed to wear jumpsuits and undergarments to minimize the need for laundering. This would also help prevent the spread of the virus through shared surfaces.

The lockdown would be implemented for approximately one month, after which the virus would likely have run its course. During this time, no essential businesses would operate, and all government workers would be reassigned to support the lockdown effort. The rationale behind this approach is that it would be more effective and result in fewer lives lost compared to the current half-hearted measures that prolong the mild misery of the ongoing pandemic.

Implementing such a strict lockdown would require meticulous planning and coordination, but the potential benefits in terms of containing the virus and protecting lives make it a feasible and effective strategy. However, it would also necessitate a significant shift in the public's mindset and willingness to comply with strict regulations.

Conclusion

The proposal outlined here is a stark yet effective measure that could have potentially halted the spread of COVID-19 in Toronto. By focusing on complete isolation and the provision of essential resources, it addresses the logistical challenges and ensures that residents can manage during the lockdown period. While it may not be the most democratic solution, it is undoubtedly the most effective when combined with widespread testing and a coordinated national response. The feasibility of such a plan highlights the urgent need for strong leadership and decisive action in the face of a pandemic.