Analysis of the Post-Coup Purges in Turkey: Erdogan’s Role and the Role of the Military Coup Plotters

Recently, there have been extensive purges in the Turkish government following a failed coup attempt. These purges have led to increased debate over whether President Recep Tayyip Erdogan knew about the plans beforehand or if they were the result of a meticulous pre-coup playbook orchestrated by the military junta and the Gulenists with American backing.

The Accusations and Counterarguments

Many critics argue that the purges were a result of a carefully planned coup attempt by the Gulenist movement, supported by the CIA, with the aim of removing Erdogan and his allies from power. Proponents of this narrative assert that President Erdogan was the primary target, and that the purges were a means to stamp out any perceived threat to his regime.

Defenders of President Erdogan, however, counter that the coup attempt was independently planned and executed by the Gulenists and their allies, with American backing. They argue that Erdogan had no prior knowledge of the plot and that he was simply caught in the crossfire, being the eventual target of the purges due to his prominent position and the likelihood of his government being overthrown.

Proving the Accusations: The List and its Details

Supporters of the Gulenist-infrastructural narrative point to the existence of a list of high-ranking officers and officials that were to be purged or arrested following a successful coup. According to this theory, this list was in the hands of the CIA-backed military junta and was even sent to junta members before the coup. The list contained names of individuals in the military, government agencies, courts, and other institutions who were to be removed from their posts.

However, it is important to note that the existence of such a list, as these sources claim, lacks definitive proof and has not been independently verified. Therefore, the claims that a list existed and was used as a guide for purges need to be viewed with caution. It is possible that the list was fabricated after the event to serve further political and narrative purposes.

Secret Services and Prior Intelligence

Nevertheless, it is worth mentioning that the Turkish Republic's Intelligence Organization (MIT) did have prior intelligence on the Gulenist movement and its influence within the military and government structures. This intelligence was used to alert the armed forces, and as a result, military and security measures were put in place to prevent or mitigate the impact of the coup attempt.

However, the speed and scale of the purges after the coup attempt provide significant ammunition to those who argue that President Erdogan had prior knowledge. The fact that the purges targeted over 6,000 military personnel and 2,700 judges within two days is striking, indicating a premeditated and detailed plan. In the absence of a cohesive military or political structure to execute such a comprehensive purge, it is more plausible that a detailed list existed, either created or updated by the government in anticipation of a threat.

Conclusion and Future Outlook

While the debate over whether Erdogan knew about the coup in advance or orchestrated it himself remains contentious, it is clear that the purges were in response to the perceived threat posed by the coup attempt. The fear of a potential second attempt led to a swift and thorough restructuring of key positions within the military and judiciary to ensure the stability and loyalty of these institutions to the current government.

The allegations and the subsequent purges have heightened political tensions and divisions within Turkey, influencing the country's global perception and leading to further scrutiny of the Turkish government's actions and intentions.